Countdown to Earth's End: Earth's Temperature Set to Rise by 1.5 Degrees

As the looming specter of a realistic climate crisis draws nearer, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Daejeon City have installed a "Climate Crisis Clock" at Daejeon Hanbat Arboretum, sounding the alarm on rising global temperatures. This clock is a device counting down the time left until the Earth's average surface temperature increases by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. The countdown is based on the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a formal "Climate Change Diagnosis" collaboratively authored by scientists worldwide and reviewed and approved by 195 IPCC member countries.

 

These data and warnings underscore the need for a profound sense of urgency regarding rising global temperatures and climate change.

 

The data for this clock is informed by research from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) in Germany. MCC assumes a carbon emission rate of 1337 tons per second and predicts the temperature rise based on this assumption. Currently, they estimate that there is approximately 2.48 trillion tons of carbon budget left to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.

 

According to the 6th IPCC Report released in March, the global average surface temperature increased by 1.09 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels during the period from 2011 to 2020. This report warns that even if nations achieve their greenhouse gas reduction targets (NDC) announced at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in 2021, there is still a possibility of surpassing the 1.5-degree mark within this century.

 

The global community agreed to limit the increase in global temperature relative to pre-industrial levels to 1.5 degrees Celsius through the Paris Agreement signed in 2015. However, achieving this goal is becoming increasingly challenging, with concerns about the possibility of temporary temperature "overshoot," exceeding 1.5 degrees.

 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expressed concern in a report released in May, indicating a 66% probability of the annual global average surface temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels from 2021 to 2027. In such a scenario, extreme high temperatures (annual maximum daily temperatures) in high and mid-latitude regions are predicted to rise by 4.5 and 3.0 degrees, respectively, and sea levels are expected to rise by 26 to 77 centimeters. Additionally, insects are projected to lose more than half of their habitats (6%), plants 8%, and vertebrates 4%, with a 1.5 million ton reduction in fish catches.

 

The "Climate Clock" located in New York, USA, based on data such as the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, currently displays that there are approximately 5 years and 320 days left until the Earth's temperature rises by 1.5 degrees. Furthermore, in January, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BSA) moved the hands of the "Doomsday Clock" (symbolizing the proximity of global catastrophe) to "90 seconds to midnight," citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a reason, asserting that "war is undermining international efforts to address climate change" and emphasizing the urgency of this peril.

 

These data and warnings underscore the need for a profound sense of urgency regarding rising global temperatures and climate change. We must confront the reality that our actions could make the future even more precarious if we do not take steps and measures to protect our planet. It is not merely awareness but active response that is required at this critical juncture.